Trump’s big problem

Why the wheels are falling off

It’s clear that the Trump administration will continue to cause catastrophic damage. It’s also clear, however, that the wheels are already falling off the Trump bus. His personal authority may be intact among his core supporters, but his prospects for sustained political success are fast-diminishing. One hundred days in, only his ability to destroy or disrupt remains potent. What has he achieved so far? Only damage, and there is no sign that Trump has the competence or patience to manage anything else, and nor do his team.

Of course Trump and crew, starting with Elon Musk, count their destruction of civil society and government institutions as an end unto itself: a victory in a bigger cultural war. But the wounds they’ve inflicted upon their "opponents" do not impress the broader public (including polled independent voters), for whom the practical consequences will be significant.

Trump’s approval ratings are terrible (in the thirties by some counts), and this will bring its own pressure, even among his Republican colleagues, especially as the mid-terms approach. The economy and immigration were formerly the basis of Trump's political appeal, but he's lost these core advantages. The public strongly disapproves of his management of both – as well as almost every other issue, including his defiance of the courts and due process.

The shock and awe tactics are wearing off, replaced by a growing understanding that he's not winning, and that holding firm or pushing back against Trumpism are possible, if not essential. Authoritarianism relies on a significant degree of public support, and Trump is rapidly losing it. His aura of invincibility is gone and his allies, with nothing more to gain, will gradually fall away too, leaving him exposed and alone. Am I being too Pollyanna-ish?

At the heart of this prediction isn’t the idealistic notion that people will punish Trump for his attacks on minorities and migrants (although they generally do), or that they love scientific research, human rights and justice, and resent him for undermining them all. It’s not that the Americans find Trump too gross, corrupt, immoral or unhinged. Hell, they voted him in as president, twice. Nor is it because he has failed to end the war in Ukraine, or to bring peace to Gaza, or acquire Canada, Greenland or the Panama canal. Or because he cut USAID or NIH funding, or because DOGE hasn’t actually saved the billions Musk promised. Trump’s loss of authority and respect isn’t because he appointed unqualified idiots to his cabinet, or pardoned the January 6 insurgents, or hasn’t actually delivered the promised mass deportations – or even that he seems more interested in golf than government. The sense of irrevocable chaos won’t be helping him, of course, but a certain amount of upheaval and nonsense was already priced in by most Americans. They voted for change, and they're sure getting it.

No, Trump’s decline will come for a simpler reason. “It is almost always the case,” wrote economist Paul Krugman recently, “that [the authoritarian] consolidation of power rests upon the perception of economic achievement.” The catalyst for Trump’s ultimate failure will be the damage he’s doing to the American economy. Everything he touches, in a very real and practical sense, turns to shit. Unlike his first term, he’s a president without guardrails, but he’s still an incompetent leader, and his plans for running the country are simply very, very stupid. Soon, every American will be hit right where it hurts – in the hip pocket.

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Trump's chaotic trade threats have already stripped trillions from the stock market, smashing not just company values and retirement nest-eggs, but also any sense of US economic stability. Foreign partners, companies and countries alike, no longer trust his America and are already taking their investment dollars elsewhere, impacting both the US currency and the all-important bond market, raising future interest payments for the US government. Inflation is expected to rise again, and most economists believe there is a high risk of recession – as do most Americans. Business uncertainty is through the roof, and, according to public polling, most hold Trump directly responsible.

His tariffs have provoked retaliation from most of America’s biggest trading partners, or led to a collapse in trade. Yet the real impact has barely arrived. Consider this: when Trump announced the China tariffs, something like 40% of all US goods imports were from China. This trade collapsed immediately, almost as if it were embargoed. The China tariffs were announced in early April; the total number of shipping containers arriving in US ports in May, based on current bookings, is projected to be down around … 40%. Even if Trump changes his mind, the economic effects are baked in. In the meantime, the heads of the biggest US retail chains are warning that they’ll likely see empty shelves within a few weeks. Many trucking companies, already struggling, face bankruptcy from the collapse of key trade routes, so logistics and supply chains throughout the nation will be further disrupted.

There’s no certainty that Trump's tariffs against other countries will remain paused, or that he won’t drop the China rate. So until further notice it’s impractical for US businesses to switch international suppliers, either for retail goods, primary resources or components, or to relocate production. Everyone’s in a state of suspended animation.

US exporters are also seeing massive orders cancelled due to China’s retaliatory tariffs, even while their own costs rise. And the impacts of tariff wars are spreading way beyond China-related trade: a recent poll of American businesses found 75% were pressing pause on any capital expansion; US importers are facing more stringent payment terms from overseas suppliers due to tariff-related contract cancellations; banks are requiring more equity and higher insurance for home builders amid uncertainty about materials; and manufacturing is softening, despite Trump’s promises that tariffs would be a boon for US factories.

The car industry is in turmoil, aviation orders are being cancelled around the world, and high-tech manufacturers are unsure how they will even operate, now that China has halted its exports of critical rare earths (a trade it controls globally). American farmers are losing big contracts and undocumented workers, small businesses are laying off staff, and the cuts to NGOs, universities, medical and scientific research laboratories and government bureaucracies (Veterans Affairs, IRS, USAID, etc) haven't even appeared yet in the economic indices. Add into this bleak picture the huge drop in tourist and student numbers, and … you get the drift.

Americans are yet to experience the flow-on effects of much of this damage, or of bad regulation, disaster management, safety standards, or lack of scientific investment, let alone the impending cuts to social security and health care. But what they really won't abide, I predict, is retail inconvenience.

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The factors that have made America a global powerhouse and investment hub are all threatened by its mad orange leader, and all are difficult to rebuild: steady trade relationships, strong diplomatic networks, a reliable financial system, consistent laws and authorities, competent regulators, health inspectors, safety standards, research support, bipartisan intelligence and security bodies, basic infrastructure.

Trump’s big problem is Trump. While he may personally benefit from patronage deals and similar corruption from the carnage he causes, there’s little chance he’s capable of changing and delivering good government. Luckily, there's even less chance he'll build the political capital required to entrench authoritarian rule.

Each Trump attack and each failure creates its own enemies – domestic and foreign – so the resistance to everything he does will keep growing. High-profile Trump allies like Pete Hegseth and Elon Musk are already licking their wounds and turning on one another. The courts are still holding out and even pushing back on Trump's executive orders, and every new order provokes a civil response. Not just human rights organisations and unions, even state governments and businesses are suing the Trump administration. And most are winning, with the courts finding many orders in violation of the Constitution. (In recent NY Times polling, by the way, there is virtually zero public support for Trump denying the Supreme Court.) With significant international support, universities and law firms are working in solidarity, community hall meetings and mass marches are on the rise, and the fourth estate (with some exceptions) is holding the Trump administration accountable. Thankfully, these are not the signs of a successful authoritarian regime.

As Trump continues to fail, it should be expected that he keeps trying to escalate – by calling in military authorities against defiant citizens, for instance, or threatening new wars – but increasingly these will be acts committed against Americans rather than for them.